Hmmmm...what to do?

Japan has 126 million people compared to the US 330 million. But they had only 851 deaths (compared to US 100k) w no lock down.

I almost feel we are living in an episode of The Outer Limits.

Asian countries can't be compared. They've been through this more often than we have. Even if the government doesn't tell them to they willingly take measures like wearing face masks out of a sense of responsibility to one another. Imagine if Americans could be responsible adults and do the right thing without being told to by the government.

Maine Sen. Angus King put it:
"Winston Churchill once famously observed that Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else."

I hate to be "that guy" but this interpretation of how the virus acts is basically opposite of what's actually happening.

This virus spreads most effectively through the population with "healthy and normal" immune systems. People that are active, appear and feel healthy, and able to go out and interact with other people are going to be the people that will most effectively spread it.

The virus has a number of techniques it uses to hide from the immune system. It does this so effectively that the peak viral load in your body actually happens before symptoms appear. The symptoms aren't because the virus is doing damage to you, its effects on your body are fairly mild. Most of the symptoms are from your immune systems reaction to the virus, and it takes a while for your system to notice what's going on. In some cases, possibly about 30%, your immune system never notices. These are the "asymptomatic carriers".

If that's all that we had to worry about then the virus could spread through the whole population and we might not even notice or care. Unfortunately not all immune systems are so laid back. There are people with compromised immune systems and people with overactive immune systems. Also there are people with normal immune systems that the virus' tricks it uses to hide actually screws up the system. In any of these groups the immune system can overreact. Your own immune system starts killing cells in your body indiscriminately. The worst case scenario is the dreaded cytokine storm where your own immune system overreacts in a massive way and starts seriously damaging your own tissues.

If it was as simple as having a healthy immune system then managing this pandemic would be a lot easier. Unfortunately immune systems are incredibly complex and it's almost impossible to tell how your body will react to the presence of the virus. If it was possible to tell beforehand then it would be a lot simpler to test people and group us into "at risk" and "not at risk" categories, and then we would only need to quarantine the at risk group.

Stay safe out there everyone. Let's reopen, but let's also take our responsibilities to ourselves and each other seriously. Accepting some fairly minor inconveniences can save a lot of lives and pain. Originally Posted by Blasted Computers

Thank you for your point of view. However, I do work in the healthcare field and have been open this entire time and am also considered an essential business as according to our governor's criteria whereas other individuals in the similar healthcare field had shut down as they were not comfortable dealing with this sort of thing we have had going on or were not properly set up in the first place. I did put a sign on the door stating that you had to have an appointment scheduled ahead of time (no walk-in's) and I was not taking any new patients. I also stated in my sign that if they felt that they had been in contact with covid-19 or come in contact with an individual then they needed to call the NM covid hotline.

During this entire time I had treated patients that were diagnosed with flu's, common cold's, etc. since way back in January, before out governor was wanting people to wear masks. During this time I was also assisting my patients by promoting immune system function and their overall wellness. Of note, I have not had any patients come down with anything remotely covid-19 and many practitioners do not make a distinction between allergies (pollen, dust, etc.) asthma, wheezing, dyspnea, etc. and just simply state "you got Covid". Instead of actually doing a proper diagnosis.

In my posting, I did state specifically how I categorize immune system function. I have seen "their reports" saying that the "healthy people that didn't have any underlying health condition got covid". I'm sorry, but I'm gonna tell it as it is. If you got it and you were "healthy"; You were actually not healthy. There was some underlying condition whether it was nutrient deficiency such as: Vitamin C, Vitamin D, Selenium, Zinc, Vitamin A Retinol, Iodine, Sulfur, Magnesium, etc. or you had been doing some construction, renovation and did not wear masks while sanding drywall, paint, etc. which caused your lungs to be more susceptible to this sort of thing, etc., in the first place.

We as a whole are constantly exposed to viruses - flu viruses (influenza), rhino viruses, adeno viruses, and yes; corona viruses, etc., Other than "mutations" whether naturally occurring or not, we will always be exposed. When a virus mutates, it is a "new virus". One that our immune systems have not seen and developed antibodies to. The analogy I use and give is you have 2 individuals that are both exposed to the same flu viruses. 1 of the 2 gets it and the other doesn't. So obviously, with the 1 person that got symptoms, their "immune system" was not up to par; Whereas the other persons immune system was and did not get symptoms. Could that person be a carrier, yes; If that person's immune system is as I have stated a "sub optimal immune system" which would allow that person to replicate the virus inside of them and they "shed the virus".

I've had patients that have come in with "chickenpox / shingles" symptoms that I ended up treating them for because they were not able to find a healthcare practitioner to be able to assist them for 6 months and it was getting worst as time went on. It turns out, the patient received a "chickenpox / shingles vaccine" among others and they were experiencing chickenpox / shingles. The patient had chickenpox when they were little. The patient also had thought that it was a "dead virus" in the vaccine which obviously was not. She had been contagious this entire time and "shedding" the virus. Her husband did not get it and nor did I especially during this time of being exposed. So I'll just say that I am an "exception". Also, on another note; when I was growing up, my brother wanted to play with the neighbors kids. The mother told him over the phone that he could not come over to play unless he already had chickenpox. My brother lied and stated that he already had it. Well, he had not had it nor had I. So he brought it back and got a really bad case of it, itching and scratching all over and still has scars to this day 35+ years later from his ordeal. During this entire time, I never came down with it. So again, I guess I'm an exception...

Not entering into the discussion of immune systems and who contracts the virus, I want to talk about spreading it and why we're in a social distancing/face mask era. COVID, and all other infections, have an infection rate...it's the number of persons an infected person will transmit the disease to. It's an exponential function...what does this mean?

If the infection rate is less than 1, in a short time the pandemic implodes on itself and goes away. That's not what's happening now. If an infected person passes on the virus to 1.3 other persons who also pass it on to 1.3 other persons, 14 people will be infected after 10 cycles...not too bad. If the infection rate goes up to 1.5, a total of 58 people will become infected after 10 cycles. Still not too bad. Here where it gets bad...think Seattle, New York City, or Wujan.

If an infected person passed the virus to 2 other people who do the same, and those people pass it on to 2 other people, after 10 cycles just over 1000 people have the virus...this is starting to be bad. Push the infection rate to 2.5 persons per carrier moves the total number after 10 cycles to around 9500 newly infected persons...this is bad. Last one...an infection rate of 3...over 59,000 people infected after 10 cycles...this is fuckin' bad!

So, be well. Hobby on safely. Otherwise, rely on the science and health not the politicians or radio talking heads who are dumber than a stump.

Not entering into the discussion of immune systems and who contracts the virus, I want to talk about spreading it and why we're in a social distancing/face mask era. COVID, and all other infections, have an infection rate...it's the number of persons an infected person will transmit the disease to. It's an exponential function...what does this mean?

If the infection rate is less than 1, in a short time the pandemic implodes on itself and goes away. That's not what's happening now. If an infected person passes on the virus to 1.3 other persons who also pass it on to 1.3 other persons, 14 people will be infected after 10 cycles...not too bad. If the infection rate goes up to 1.5, a total of 58 people will become infected after 10 cycles. Still not too bad. Here where it gets bad...think Seattle, New York City, or Wujan.

If an infected person passed the virus to 2 other people who do the same, and those people pass it on to 2 other people, after 10 cycles just over 1000 people have the virus...this is starting to be bad. Push the infection rate to 2.5 persons per carrier moves the total number after 10 cycles to around 9500 newly infected persons...this is bad. Last one...an infection rate of 3...over 59,000 people infected after 10 cycles...this is fuckin' bad!

So, be well. Hobby on safely. Otherwise, rely on the science and health not the politicians or radio talking heads who are dumber than a stump. Originally Posted by FunnTyme4Us

You are correct. So if everyone worked on keeping their immune systems up to par, this will go a long way to preventing the spread of the virus in the first place or exponentially spreading. They never discuss any of what I have stated in my posts.

Asian countries can't be compared. They've been through this more often than we have. Originally Posted by Blasted Computers

I partially agree. Japan may have a herd immunity from exposure to a similar virus. This immunity may have saved lives.
We have found common ground.

Most people here wear masks. Most people there wore masks. I would focus on how we did things differently to achieve different ends.

Japan had no lock down. The US did. If a lock down helps, we should have lower causualties. Assuming the 100k figure is accurate, our per capita death rate is 50x higher.

Question: Would immunity to COVID-19 increase our immunity to COVID-20, 21, 22, or 23?

We could find out. Or we could lock down for a few months every year even though it didn't work this year. Sounds like a losing strategy but lets go for it. What have we got to lose? The answer is $2.2 trillion dollars plus uncalculated personal hardships including: loss of employment, loss of income, delayed health care, increased stress, mental health issues. These result in decreased lifespan as well.

Its possible Japan is misreporting their numbers. Or maybe we are. (We did incentivize reporting by dangling COVID funding like a carrot on a stick. I don't know if the Japanese did the same thing.) Believe whatever you want. I'm not joining a doomsday cult. I don't care how many members it has.

"count how many times you or people you know contracted an std or got robbed on one hand and count how many people you actually know had or have covid on the other."

Robbed: none. STD: none (you talk about that shit with people you know?)

Covid: Just had an Aunt die the other die of it. If I seem cavalier about it it's only because I wasn't close to her

Doesn't matter anyway, personal anecdotes don't trump epidemiology