The Delta variant is more virulent but there is no proof it is LESS deadly than the other strains.
On July 5 the 7-day average of deaths attributed to COVID was 214, Today that number is 651 and increasing day-to-day. This is far less than the peak back in January (3,263) but all reported data shows that the unvaccinated are making up almost all of the deaths.
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
Yes, just plain old common sense would make you question how the Delta variant could be less virulent.
I haven't looked at the data behind Texassapper's chart, but if it's correct, would point out that
(a) A lot of people were vaccinated in Britain between the time the Alpha variant predominated and when the Delta variant took over. So you'd expect case fatality ratio to be lower just because more people were vaccinated. Vaccination provides much more protection against severe disease and death from the Delta variant, than protection from getting infected.
(b) Older people have gotten vaccinated at much higher rates than younger people. So the people getting infected by the Delta variant are a younger crowd, less prone to die from COVID.
(c) There are people infected with the Delta variant now who will die from COVID in the future. Not so much with Alpha, which has run its course.
(d) I wonder if testing is much more available now in Britain than it was when the Alpha variant was running rampant? If so, the case fatality rate for Delta would be lower, because you're identifying more people with mild symptoms and the asymptomatic.
Here are a couple of studies that would indicate the Delta variant is more virulent,
Canadian Study:
Compared to non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 strains, the adjusted elevation in risk associated with N501Y-positive variants was 59% (49-69%) for hospitalization; 105% (82-134%) for ICU admission; and 61% (40-87%) for death. Increases with Delta variant were more pronounced: 120% (93-153%) for hospitalization; 287% (198-399%) for ICU admission; and 137% (50-230%) for death.
(Tiny's note: The N501Y mutation is found in Alpha, Beta and Gamma variants, not Delta.)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....05.21260050v2
Scottish Study:
Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC when compared to the Alpha VOC
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...358-1/fulltext